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July 27, 2006
[ THE FUTURE-PROOF DIGITAL CAMERA ]
CAMERA MAKERS ARE REPORTING AN INTERESTING PHENOMENON in their sales statistics: many customers are now buying their third or fourth digital camera. This is good news to the camera makers but it is unsettling news for the prospective first-time customer.
One chap writes in a Web forum: “Back in the old film camera days you could buy a nice camera and probably 5 to 8 years later it still was a good camera... Now with the digital cameras I have seen how fast they become obsolete. Do you think there will be an upper limit for digital cameras where you can buy a nice body and it will be a good piece of equipment several years later?”
At the top end of the market, where the single lens reflex cameras are found, model life is reassuringly long. The Nikon D100, for instance, was in production for four years before it was replaced with the D200. The Canon 30D SLR differs only slightly from the 20D and the 20D is not very different from the 10D.
The frantic action is at the compact end of the market. At the popular price point of $600–700 model life is very short and there is no hope of buying a camera today that will still be current in a year’s time.
Compact cameras have quickly acquired higher resolution sensors and such useful technology as image stabilisation. Zoom lenses have gone wider and longer and automatic exposure, focussing and image processing have all improved so that today’s cameras are superior to those of three years ago. It is hard to resist the siren call of the latest model.
Photographic distributor, Robert Heim, says that there was a formula used in the digital camera business in its early days: “For every $100 spent on a new camera it will be kept for one month.” This was a period when a 2 megapixel camera like the original Nikon Coolpix cost $2000. Mr Heim says that now that 5, 6 and 8 megapixel sensors are commonplace in cheap cameras the turnover rate has slowed to one new camera every couple of years.
Gfk Consumerscope track the camera business and they reported in January that 39 per cent of buyers were purchasing a second or third camera. Stuart Poignand, marketing manager at Canon Australia, says that more than 50 per cent of Canon buyers are buying a second or subsequent camera.
The economics of photography have been transformed by digital. With film cameras the improvements were in film emulsions, chemicals and papers so there was little to be gained in swapping one $299 camera for another. The big costs were in film and processing, $23 for every 24 exposure film, developing and printing. In digital the pictures cost nothing if they are shared electronically, as most are, so buying a replacement digital camera is not as indulgently expensive as it might look.
Canon have made the unilateral decision that the megapixel wars are over. Canon’s new Ixus 800is is a 6mp camera, which has surprised observers, but the company reckons that 6 million clean pixels with image stabilised lens and exemplary in-camera processing is what people really need. Will consumers buy this reasoning when a 6mp Canon costs $100 more than an 8mp Sony? After all, bigger is better, right?
Compact camera technology is now mature. With many brands taking their sensors from the same source company it is hard to get a resolution advantage. Gimmicks, such as wireless connectivity and touch screens, will only seduce a few gadget freaks and the big battle now is over price and retail margins. Makers are skimping on materials and features -- more plastic, less metal and no optical viewfinder -- and moving manfuacturing to China to shave a dollar off the price. Some of this years cameras are inferior in quality to the models they replace but they have more pixels and cost less.
The only way to stay ahead of the game is never to buy a camera.
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Posted by terry at July 27, 2006 07:19 AM
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Comments
I think the days of DSLR camera bodies lasting 4 - 6 - 8 years are well and truely over.
The advent of non traditional SLR manufacturers into the market (Sony, Panasonic, Samsung aleady with others to follow soon) has brought a consumer electronics focus to this segment. The two majors Nikon and Canon will now have to compete not against each other on technical terms but against the marketing muscle of the Sonys and Panasonics of the world and part of the marketing will involve regular "new" and "updated" products to feed the consumer desire for the "latest" thing.
You know that your D70 will not stop taking great photos in the near or distant future but to the consumers who are about to be dragged into the DSLR market it will be obsolete in about 14 days when the new D80 arrives and then will be even more obsolete when they read the specs from Sony or Panasonic later in the year.
RIP the (D)SLR camera market that we have all known over the last 30 years or so.
I for one am rather sad but I guess this is what we call progress.
Posted by: Richard at July 31, 2006 04:05 AM

